The Czech Republic’s Renewable Energy heritage remains largely as a leftover from the Soviet era. There is much existing cogeneration, especially in distric heating applications, but much of it will be in need of refurbishment in the following years. In the early 1990’s, Czech saw a boom in the development of smaller cogeneration plants and policy is now playing an important part in once again fostering cogeneration investment in the country. Like other EU countries, efforts to comply with EU environmental and competitiveness standards will be key drivers for Renewable Energy in the Czech Republic.
The following transition scenario is calculated with a methodology which is guided by the energy policy triangle. It must be pointed out that the scenario is not a prediction of future events, but a consistent path to the future that will require efforts to become reality. The scope of this scenario analysis and simulation is to identify a viable and consistent future situation, to evaluate its desirability and to provide the necessary base for the finding of strategies for its achievement.
Following transition scenario shows the simulated sustainable mix of energy sources for power generation within the applied constraints for the CR (2000-2050)
Transition Scenario Czech Republic
Statistical Information of the CR on Renewable Energy can be obtained on http://www.iea.org/textbase/pm/?mode=re&action=view&country=czech_republic
Constraints and Assumptions of the Scenario
The contraints and assumptions used to narrow down the set of viable paths to the future have been selected to be plausible and conservative in terms of the expansion of renewables, assuming e.g. a relatively low cost escalation for fossil fuels, so the scenario is on the conservative side. There can be different scenarios based on more optimistic or more pessimistic assumptions. We think that the parameters chosen are within a very reasonable range of possibilities.
The transition scenario was calculated with the following economic constraints:
- Oil price
- Gas price
- Coal price
- Capture and sequestration in new fossil fuel plants starting in 2020
- Discount rate
- Exchange rate of Euro / Dollar.
The following potential barriers and constraints have also been taken into account to narrow down the course of market development of renewable forms of energy in the scenario:
- Existing grid infrastructure
- Growth rates and market shares of renewable energy technology production
- Annual electricity demand
- Peaking power demand and firm reserve capacity
- Replacement of old plants
- Cost of electricity in comparison to competing technologies
- Opportunities of finance
- Policies and energy economic frame conditions
All these constraints are not treated as static constants, but are analysed in their dynamic transition towards a sustainable energy scheme.
The total potential for renewable electricity generation in the Czech Republic not including solar electricity import is given with:
- Hydro: 4.0 TWh/y (technical), 3.0 TWh/y (economical)
- Bio: 20.0 TWh/y (economical)
- Wind: 5.8 TWh/y (economical)
- PV: 1.1 TWh/y (economical)
Comparing the expected future electricity demand with the economic renewable energy potentials in 2050 shows the following results:
- Total Demand = 51.7 TWh/y
- Total Economic Renewable Potential = 29.9 TWh/y
- Coverage = 58 %
