This transition scenario is calculated with a methodology which is guided by the energy policy triangle. It must be pointed out that the scenario is not a prediction of future events, but a consistent path to the future that will require efforts to become reality. The scope of this scenario analysis and simulation is to identify a viable and consistent future situation, to evaluate its desirability and to provide the necessary base for the finding of strategies for its achievement.
Following transition scenario shows the simulated sustainable mix of energy sources for power generation within the applied constraints for Belgium (2000-2050): Transition Scenario Belgium
Constraints and Assumptions of the Scenario
The contraints and assumptions used to narrow down the set of viable paths to the future have been selected to be plausible and conservative in terms of the expansion of renewables, assuming e.g. a relatively low cost escalation for fossil fuels, so the scenario is on the conservative side. There can be different scenarios based on more optimistic or more pessimistic assumptions. We think that the parameters chosen are within a very reasonable range of possibilities.
The transition scenario was calculated with the following economic constraints
- Oil price
- Gas price
- Coal price
- CO2 Capture and sequestration in new fossil fuel plants starting in 2020
- Discount rate
- Exchange rate of Euro / Dollar.
The following potential barriers and constraints have also been taken into account to narrow down the course of market development of renewable forms of energy in the scenario:
- Existing grid infrastructure
- Growth rates and market shares of renewable energy technology production
- Annual electricity demand
- Peaking power demand and firm reserve capacity
- Replacement of old plants
- Cost of electricity in comparison to competing technologies
- Opportunities of finance
- Policies and energy economic frame conditions
All these constraints are not treated as static constants, but are analysed in their dynamic transition towards a sustainable energy scheme.
The total potential for renewable electricity generation in Belgium not including solar electricity import is given with:
- Hydro: 0.5 TWh/y (technical), 0.3 TWh/y (economical)
- Bio: 7.3 TWh/y (economical)
- Wind: 13.0 TWh/y (economical)
- PV: 2.1 TWh/y (economical)
- Water / Tide: 0.2 TWh/y (economical)
Comparing the expected future electricity demand with the economic renewable energy potentials in 2050 shows the following results:
- Total Demand = 67.0 TWh/y
- Total Economic Renewable Potential = 23.2 TWh/y
- Coverage = 35 %